The Cheesecake Factory took a rare sales hit to end 2025.
Same-store sales fell 2.2 percent in Q4, marking just the second negative result since 2020 (the other was Q1 2024). The chain called out a 1 percent impact from weather, about a 0.5 percent impact from the Q4 2025 calendar, as New Year’s Eve fell outside the quarter, the volatile macroeconomic environment, and the federal government shutdown.
Still, Cheesecake outpaced its competition. Black Box Intelligence data showed the casual-dining segment declined about 4.1 percent in Q4 year-over-year, “demonstrating relative stability in comparison to the industry sequential decline,” according to CFO Matthew Clark. The brand also posted an AUV of $12.2 million, backed by an off-premises mix of 22 percent. For the full year, comps increased 0.1 percent. Margins were just shy of 18 percent.
Cheesecake expects progress in Q1, despite a 1 percent negative impact from weather, which caused as many as 120 restaurant closures. Clark added that “pretty steady and pretty good” trends should continue for all of the company’s concepts for the rest of the year.
“I do think coming out into the first quarter here that our performance is notably better,” the CFO said.
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Cheesecake believes it will continue to attract customers with its lower-priced bowls and bites menu, which launched last summer. The products were backed by a strong marketing push, including placement on a separate menu card and clear messaging across all social media channels. Thanks to these items, Cheesecake has seen year-over-year growth in appetizer attachment rates and improved entrée ordering patterns.
This year, Cheesecake will refresh its bites platform and expand its bowl options.
“We’re seeing strong attachment rates because they do provide great Cheesecake Factory value,” said president David Gordon. “And that value comes certainly in the price point on the bowls, but also on the portion size on the bites and bowls that are great for sharing. We’re seeing people attach the bites to their check.”
Cheesecake has also seen growth in Cheesecake Rewards, thanks to increases in membership and improved engagement.
Additionally, the brand once again teased a dedicated rewards app. Gordon said it will launch in the second quarter, supported by significant social media messaging, in-restaurant marketing, and a “nice strong offer” for guests to download the app.
The president added that the main goal is to “make members’ experience as seamless as possible and give them as much value as they can as members.” This includes easier access to reservations and being able to review order history.
“We’re excited to get it going in Q2,” Gordon said.
Elsewhere in Cheesecake’s portfolio, North Italia’s same-store sales dropped 4 percent because of the macroeconomic environment, sales transfers due to new store openings, and the continued impact of Los Angeles wildfires. AUV in Q4 was $7.6 million.
The negative sales result was surrounded by a lot of positives. First, manager and hourly staff retention remains near historical highs. Also, restaurant-level profit margin for adjusted mature locations was 17.5 percent in Q4, bringing the full-year 2025 average to 17 percent. That fits squarely into North Italia’s long-term target of 16 percent to 18 percent.
The chain opened two restaurants in the quarter, with aggregate average weekly sales surpassing $182,000, or an annualized AUV of over $9 million.
Meanwhile, Flower Child’s Q4 same-store sales increased 4 percent year-over-year and 15 percent on a two-year stack. This led to a $4.3 million AUV in Q4 and a $4.6 million AUV in fiscal 2025. Restaurant-level profit margin was 17.5 percent in the fourth quarter and 18.5 percent in 2025.
Gordon credited Flower Child’s success to it being an “experiential fast-casual dining experience” and the operations team deploying “a lot of systems over the past 24 months to enable consistent execution.”
“Certainly, we are enthusiastic and very pleased with the performance of Flower Child,” Gordon said. “It continues to exceed expectations in new and existing markets, which I think is very promising as we moved into new markets. Even when there has been no Flower Child within miles or states, the reception has been very, very strong.”
The Fox Restaurants Concepts portfolio opened three restaurants in existing markets during the fourth quarter, including a Culinary Dropout and a Henry. Each unit saw average weekly sales equating to annualized AUV of over $8.7 million.
The overall company opened 25 new stores in 2025, or 7 percent unit growth year-over-year. In 2026, the expectation is 26 openings, comprising as many as six Cheesecake units, six to seven North Italia locations, six to seven Flower Child outlets, and as many as eight FRC restaurants. Cheesecake Factory also anticipates one to two international units to open under licensing agreements.
Cheesecake finished 2025 with 218 company-owned stores.
The company projects $3.9 billion in revenue for 2026, plus or minus 1 percent. Inflation around commodities, labor, and other operating costs should be in the low to mid single digits and be consistent across all quarters.
